The US single family mortgage TAM is now over 6.5 million loans per year

The US single family mortgage TAM for originations in 2025, including 1st and 2nd mortgage and home equity lines of credit is estimated to be over 6.5 million loans.

Defining the single family mortgage TAM

At a high level, we can define the TAM (Total Addressable Market) as the total number of originators and originated loans in the US, backed by single family residential properties. The TAM is created by aligning and reconciling lenders and loans across different data sources and reporting frequency by period.

Forecasting and tracking the TAM

Forecasting the TAM is challenging since numerous factors drive the actual prime mortgage rate available to borrowers in any given month. In order to provide a practical baseline for management reporting, we track & update loan volumes quarterly, and in some instances monthly.

Breakdown by 1st mortgage, 2nd mortgage and HELOCs

Exploring the single family mortgage TAM further shows total number of institutions originating and purchasing loans, plus total loan originations and the settlement products that are ordered during the mortgage fulfillment process.

The table above identifies the ‘Total Sellers and Originators’ as the number of unique financial institutions who originate and service agency, government and non-agency loans. For further clarity:

• GSE Sellers – lenders who deliver loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae
• GSE Originators – lenders who originate loans for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae, but do not sell directly to the GSEs (also: correspondents)
• Ginnie Mae Issuers – lenders who issue FHA, VA, PIH and RHS loans
• Ginnie Mae Originators – lenders who originate FHA, VA, PIH and RHS loans, but do not issue them directly
• Non-Agency 1st Mortgage – banks and credit unions who portfolio loans, plus other non-QM originators and investors
• Non-Agency 2nd Mortgage & HELOC – banks and credit unions who portfolio home equity loans, plus other non-QM originators and investors