Housing Finance Forecasts for May 2024 Available Now for 2024/2025

Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast for May 2024 this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.

For May, the MBA and Fannie Mae forecasts for 2024 and 2024 remain aligned as MBA lowered purchase and refinance origination estimates slightly, while Fannie Mae lowered estimates more significantly, when compared to the projections published in April 2024. MBA origination volume is still projected at 4.5% higher for 2024 and 0.8% higher for 2025, when compared to Fannie Mae.

This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months. Additionally, we provide the latest reported agency issuance – from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae sellers – to see how the forecasts are tracking to actuals

Fannie Mae and MBA housing forecasts for May 2024

The MBA forecast now estimates 4,541,000 and 5,104,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively. MBA lowered their 2024 and 2025 estimates by 0.8% and 2.2% respectively. Since January 2024, the MBA has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 21.3% and 21.4% respectively.

The Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4,337,000 and 5,065,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, down 10.0% and 9.3% on prior month estimates. Since January 2024, Fannie Mae has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 33.9% and 38.2% respectively.

The table below shows how the housing finance forecasts have been updated monthly, and the current variance of MBA versus Fannie Mae. MBA and Fannie Mae have yet to update 2023 actuals after the release of HMDA 2023.

Housing finance forecasts for May 2024 with latest origination volume actuals (‘000s)

MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share. For Q1 2024, we are reporting agency and portfolio originations of 865,000 1st lien, closed-end, 1-4 single family mortgages.

Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.

More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts