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Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast for April 2024 this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.
For April, the MBA and Fannie Mae forecasts for 2024 and 2024 are now more closely aligned as MBA lowered purchase and refinance origination estimates significantly, while Fannie Mae increased estimates slightly, when compared to the projections published in March 2024. MBA origination volume is now 0.2% higher for 2024 and 6.7% lower for 2025 than Fannie Mae.
This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months. Additionally, we provide the latest reported agency issuance – from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae sellers – to see how the forecasts are tracking to actuals
Fannie Mae and MBA housing forecasts for April 2024
The MBA forecast now estimates 4,576,000 and 5,218,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively. MBA lowered their 2024 and 2025 estimates by 10% and 9.3% respectively.
The Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4,565,000 and 5,566,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, up 2.5% and 3.5% on prior month estimates.
The table below shows how the housing finance forecasts have been updated monthly, and the current variance of MBA versus Fannie Mae.
MBA and Fannie Mae will update 2023 actuals after the release of HMDA in Q2 2024.
Housing finance forecasts for April 2024 with latest origination volume actuals (‘000s)
MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share. For Q1 2024, based on agency issuance through March and prior origination mix, we project combined agency and portfolio originations of 865,000 1st lien, closed-end, 1-4 single family mortgages, up 4% on last month.
Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.
Summary data available for download
The summary data contained in the model is available for free download, and includes 2022 through 2023 actual loan volumes from agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolio originations. We currently reconcile to HMDA 2022 and will update when the final HMDA 2023 data is published.
Housing Finance Forecast for April 2024
Consolidated housing finance forecasts for April 2024 of first-lien closed-end 1-4 single family mortgage originations and purchases for 2022-2025, for agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolios, updated March 2024. Includes 2022 and 2023 actuals, MtgeFi projections, reconciliation to HMDA 2022, and average loan amount from MBA.
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More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts
To access the economic and housing finance forecasts from Fannie Mae and MBA archives directly: