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Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast for September 2024 this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.
MBA is now forecasting the number of loan originations to be 8.9% and 10.9% higher than Fannie Mae for 2024 and 2025 respectively. This is driven by ~50% increases in projected refinance volume in Q4 2024 and throughout 2025. Fannie Mae raised refinance estimates by 11.5% for Q4 2024 and 3.5% for 2025, compared to the projections published in August 2024.
This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months, plus how the forecasts are tracking to the latest reported loan volume.
Fannie Mae & MBA housing forecast for September 2024
The MBA forecast now estimates 4,632,000 and 5,969,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, adjusting estimates upwards by 4.6% and 17.8% respectively. Since January 2024, the MBA has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 7.1% and 25.2% respectively.
The Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4,220,000 and 5,316,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, lower by 0.9% for 2024 and marginally higher at 0.8% for 2025, compared to the prior month estimates. Since January 2024, Fannie Mae has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 36.2% and 25.2% respectively.
The table below shows the housing finance forecast for September and the prior 2 months, and the current variance between MBA and Fannie Mae.
Housing finance forecast for September 2024 with latest origination volumes (‘000s)
MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share.
Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.
Summary data available for free download
The summary data contained in the model is available for free download, and includes 2022 through 2023 actual loan volumes from agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolio originations. We are now reconciled to HMDA 2022 and HMDA 2023.
Housing Finance Forecast for September 2024
Consolidated housing finance forecast for September 2024 of first-lien closed-end 1-4 single family mortgage originations and purchases for 2022-2025, for agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolios, updated September 24, 2024. Includes 2022 and 2023 actuals, MtgeFi projections, reconciliation to HMDA, and average loan amount from MBA.
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More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts
To access the economic and housing finance forecasts from Fannie Mae and MBA archives directly: