Housing Finance Forecast now available for 2025 and 2026

Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages. Fannie Mae and MBA have now added quarterly forecasts through the end of 2026.

This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months, plus how the forecasts are tracking to the latest reported loan volume.

Fannie Mae & MBA housing forecast for November 2024

In October, Fannie Mae and MBA increased 2025 estimates by ~600,000 loans. With the November release, these increases have been reversed.

The MBA forecast now estimates 5.05 million, 6.01 million and 6.51 million loan originations for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively. Since January 2024, the MBA has increased 2024 and 2025 estimates by 12.4% and 23.4% respectively.

Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4.58 million, 5.33 million and 6.53 million loan originations for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively. Since January 2024, Fannie Mae has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 22.1% and 26.5% respectively.

The table below shows the housing finance forecast for November and the prior 2 months, and the current variances. Fannie Mae loan counts are calculated from MBA purchase and refinance average loan amounts, as MBA provides both loan amount and count.

Housing finance forecast for November 2024 with latest origination volumes (‘000s)

MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share.

Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.

More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts