Housing Finance Forecast for July available now for 2024/2025

Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast for July 2024 this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.

For July, the MBA and Fannie Mae forecasts for 2024/2025 remain aligned as both lowered 1st mortgage origination estimates ~1.0% for 2024 and raised them 1-2% for 2025 compared to the projections published in June 2024. MBA origination volume is projected at 5.5% higher for 2024 and the same in 2025 when compared to Fannie Mae, but with small difference in the mix of purchase and refinance loans.

This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months, plus how the forecasts are tracking to the latest reported loan volume.

Fannie Mae and MBA housing forecast for July 2024

The MBA forecast now estimates 4,475,000 and 5,146,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, adjusting estimates 0.9% lower and 1.0% higher in respective years. Since January 2024, the MBA has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 22.0% and 20.0% respectively.

The Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4,246,000 and 5,146,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, down 1.1% for 2024 and up 2.1% for 2025, compared to the prior month estimates. Since January 2024, Fannie Mae has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 39.1% and 34.8% respectively.

The table below shows the housing finance forecast for July and the prior 2 months, and the current variance between MBA and Fannie Mae.

Housing finance forecast for July 2024 with latest origination volume actuals (‘000s)

MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share. For Q2 2024, we are reporting agency and portfolio originations of 1,072,000 1st lien, closed-end, 1-4 single family mortgages.

Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.

More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts