Housing Finance Forecast for December 2024 now released

Fannie Mae and MBA published their housing finance forecast for December 2026 this week, either side of the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee announcement reducing the federal funds rate a quarter point to 4.25%.

These are forecasts of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages for 2025 and 2026.

This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months, plus how the forecasts are tracking to the latest reported loan volume.

Housing finance forecast for December 2024

In December, Fannie Mae and MBA revised 2025 estimates lower but left largely 2026 unchanged.

The MBA forecast now estimates 5.05 million, 5.78 million and 6.52 million loan originations for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively, with 2025 estimates down 8.3% from November and 2024 and 2026 unchanged.

Fannie Mae forecast estimates 4.60 million, 5.41 million and 6.49 million loan originations for 2024, 2025 and 2026 respectively, with 2024 and 2025 estimates up 2.4% and 2026 unchanged since last month.

The table below shows the housing finance forecast for December 2024 and the prior 2 months, and the current variances. Fannie Mae loan counts are calculated from MBA purchase and refinance average loan amounts, as MBA provides both loan amount and count.

Housing finance forecast for December 2024 with latest origination volumes (‘000s)

MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share.

Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.

More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts