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Fannie Mae and MBA published their latest housing finance forecast for August 2024 this week providing estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.
For August, the MBA and Fannie Mae forecasts for 2024/2025 aligned within 5% for both years. MBA lowered 1st mortgage origination estimates 1-2% for 2024 and 2025, while Fannie raised estimates 0.3-3% for the same period, compared to the projections published in July 2024. MBA 1st mortgage origination volume is now projected at 3.8% lower for 2024 and 4.0% higher for 2025, when compared to Fannie Mae.
This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to prior months, plus how the forecasts are tracking to the latest reported loan volume.
Fannie Mae and MBA housing forecast for August 2024
The MBA forecast now estimates 4,427,000 and 5,069,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, adjusting estimates down by 1.1% and 1.5% respectively. Since January 2024, the MBA has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 23.3% and 21.8% respectively.
The Fannie Mae forecast now estimates 4,259,000 and 5,274,000 loan originations for 2024 and 2025 respectively, up 0.3% for 2024 and up 2.5% for 2025, compared to the prior month estimates. Since January 2024, Fannie Mae has lowered 2024 and 2025 estimates by 35.5% and 27.6% respectively.
The table below shows the housing finance forecast for August and the prior 2 months, and the current variance between MBA and Fannie Mae.
Housing finance forecast for August 2024 with latest origination volume actuals (‘000s)
MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share. For Q2 2024, we are reporting agency and portfolio originations of 1,072,000 1st lien, closed-end, 1-4 single family mortgages.
Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.
Summary data available for free download
The summary data contained in the model is available for free download, and includes 2022 through 2023 actual loan volumes from agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolio originations. We are now reconciled to HMDA 2022 and HMDA 2023.
Housing Finance Forecast for August 2024
Consolidated housing finance forecast for August 2024 of first-lien closed-end 1-4 single family mortgage originations and purchases for 2022-2025, for agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolios, updated August 23, 2024. Includes 2022 and 2023 actuals, MtgeFi projections, reconciliation to HMDA, and average loan amount from MBA.
Original price was: $275.00.$0.00Current price is: $0.00.
More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts
To access the economic and housing finance forecasts from Fannie Mae and MBA archives directly: