Housing Finance Forecast for February 2024

Fannie Mae and MBA published their monthly housing finance forecast for February 2024 last week. Currently these forecasts provide estimates of the quarterly purchase and refinance origination volumes for 1st lien, closed-end, single family mortgages in 2024 and 2025.

This article provides a brief review of these latest forecasts and highlights the major changes in projected loan originations, expressed in loan counts, compared to the prior month. Additionally, we provide the latest reported agency issuance – from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae sellers – to compare how the forecasts are tracking to the latest volume actuals.

The goal is to share key forecast changes, and the latest actual volumes as actionable data for mortgage industry lenders and vendors who are managing budgets and tracking market share and performance. Summary data is now available for free download monthly below, with detailed lender-level originations data available for purchase.

Fannie Mae & MBA housing forecasts for February 2024

The MBA forecast estimates 5,063,000 and 5,754,000 loans will be originated for 2024 and 2025 respectively. Fannie Mae is projecting 4,854,000 and 5,841,000 loans, 4.3% lower for 2024 and 1.5% higher for 2025 than MBA.

While MBA increased their estimates for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, the remaining quarters in 2024 and 2025 are all adjusted down. Fannie Mae made slight downward adjustments to Q2 and Q3 2024 but otherwise estimates are unchanged.

The 2023 actuals will be finalized by MBA and Fannie Mae after the release of HMDA 2023 data in Q3 2024.

Housing finance forecasts for February 2024 with latest origination volume actuals (‘000s)

MtgeFi produces a consolidated quarterly model with actual loan volumes to compare to the housing finance forecasts allowing customers to monitor budgets and track market share. For Q1 2024, based on agency issuance through February and prior origination mix, we expect origination of 831,000 1st lien, closed-end, 1-4 single family mortgages.

Data is available monthly or quarterly and include updates to MBA and Fannie Mae housing forecasts, current agency issuance and the latest bank and credit union portfolio originations.

Summary data available for download

The summary data contained in the model is available for free download, and includes 2022 through 2023 actual loan volumes from agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolio originations. The data is fully reconciled to HMDA 2022, the most current reporting year.

Housing Finance Forecast for 2024 -2025 [02-2024]

Consolidated housing finance forecasts of first-lien closed-end 1-4 single family mortgage originations and purchases for 2022-2025, for agency issuance and bank & credit union portfolios. Includes 2022 and 2023 actuals, MtgeFi projections, reconciliation to HMDA 2022, and average loan amount from MBA.

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More information about Fannie Mae and MBA economic and housing forecasts

To access the economic and housing finance forecasts from Fannie Mae and MBA archives directly: